U.S. Week Ahead Forecast
Valid Monday–Friday, Oct 13–17, 2025
Overview based on WPC/CPC/SPC/NHC guidance as of Oct 8, 2025.
TL;DR
Early week stays active in the West (rounds of rain, high-elevation snow, local flood risk in desert terrain), while the nation’s middle trends warmer than normal. The Southeast/Gulf lean drier overall once coastal influences fade. Tropics: Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry is projected to stay well east of the U.S.; Eastern Pacific Priscilla weakens near Baja with remnant moisture feeding the Southwest.
Why this pattern?
- Pacific systems roll into CA → Great Basin → Rockies, tapping subtropical moisture at times. Expect periods of rain; highest peaks get snow.
- A mid-continent ridge favors several days of above-normal temps from the Southern Plains into parts of the Midwest.
- Southern/Eastern U.S. trends quieter/drier mid to late week compared to normal for mid-October.
West (CA • AZ • NM • UT • CO • NV • OR • WA • ID)
Rounds of rain move ashore and inland Mon–Wed, renewing mid to late week in spots. Watch for localized flooding in slot canyons/arroyo country (AZ/NM/UT) during heavier bursts. High-elevation snow possible in the Sierra/Rockies. Cooler than normal overall.
Central / Plains / Midwest
Ridge influence = a warm stretch. Expect above-normal daytime highs from the Southern Plains through the Mid-Mississippi Valley into parts of the Midwest. Mostly dry or light/brief frontal showers where boundaries sneak in.
Gulf Coast & Southeast
Overall drier-than-normal tilt for much of TX/LA/MS/AL/GA/FL after early-week coastal influence fades. Humidity is manageable; sea-breeze or stray shower not impossible, but coverage is limited.
Mid-Atlantic & Northeast
Early-week leftover coastal showers possible near the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic, then trending less active. Interior sections warm some midweek; coastal spots run closer to seasonal.
Day-by-day (Mon–Fri)
- Mon 10/13: West unsettled (Southwest/Intermountain rain; highest terrain snow). East: lingering coastal showers early; otherwise quiet. Center: warm/mostly dry.
- Tue 10/14 – Wed 10/15: Another Pacific wave spreads precip into CA → Great Basin/Rockies; flooding concerns where moisture pools. Central states stay warm above average. Northeast eases drier.
- Thu 10/16 – Fri 10/17: Active West persists in spots. Central U.S. warmth hangs on. Southeast/Gulf trend on the drier side versus normal.
Severe & Travel Notes
Severe thunderstorms: No widespread, high-confidence severe signal yet; any risk looks marginal/conditional and tied to fronts/terrain interactions. Check the daily SPC Day 1–3 outlooks.
Travel: West Coast/Intermountain airports may see delays during heavier bands. Mountain passes: brief winter-like conditions possible on the highest routes during bursts.
Tropics Snapshot
Tropical Storm Jerry (Atlantic) is strengthening over the open Atlantic and is projected to curve north, staying well east of the U.S. mainland this workweek. Hurricane/TS Priscilla (EPAC) weakens near Baja; remnant moisture contributes to Southwest rain.
Always check the latest NHC advisories if you’ve got beach/boating plans.
Planner Tips
- Outdoor events: Best odds for smooth sailing run from the Southern Plains through parts of the Southeast and much of the Midwest.
- Southwest hiking: Avoid slot canyons/arroyos during storms—flash flooding can hit fast.
- Mountain travel: Carry layers/chains where required; highest peaks could see quick snow bursts.
